Fran Santiago/Getty. Pictured: Rodrigo Riquelme.
Closing out this weekend’s action in Spain, Rayo Vallecano look to continue their fine start to the campaign with a victory over Atlético Madrid on Monday.
The hosts join Real Madrid as the only teams in La Liga to own a perfect record after winning their first two matches against Granada and Almería.
Meanwhile, manager Diego Simeone’s side has a win and a draw through the opening pair of games, with a victory pushing them ahead of their opponents in the table.
On paper, this should be a great fixture to round out match day 3, and I believe we could get goals to make this an entertaining affair.
Here is my Rayo Vallecano vs Atletico Madrid pick.
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There were questions surrounding Rayo Vallecano this summer after Andoni Iraola left his post as manager to take the job at Bournemouth in the Premier League.
However, the club has not missed a beat so far, racking up 4.2 xG, according to fbref.com, in two shutout victories.
This has been a great start to life under new coach Francisco, who has previously been the boss at Elche and Girona.
What’s even more impressive is that both wins came away from home, where the team struggled with a -10.6 xGDiff last season. Francisco will want to impress in his first fixture at the Estadio de Vallecas.
Simeone has always been known for his pragmatic style during his time at Atlético Madrid, but we saw an interesting shift after the World Cup last season.
Madrid became a very attacking side, averaging 1.83 expected goals per 90 minutes in La Liga matches. This big change also brought great results.
In the final 24 games of the campaign, Simeone’s team only lost two fixtures, which both came against Barcelona.
The other key to the performances was French star Antoine Griezmann, who sealed the permanent switch back to the capital over the summer to continue his fine play.
Pick & Prediction
If you look at the results in the Spanish top flight this weekend, the one thing that stands out is the amount of goals in the games, and I believe that trend continues here.
So, my best bet is for both teams to score at -106, which is playable to -120 for me.
For starters, this was a profitable play in league fixtures at Vallecas last season, cashing in 7-of-10 games against clubs who finished in the top half of the table.
In fact, Rayo only kept a clean sheet in one of those matches, which didn’t happen in either game against Atlético.
This is not a good sign coming up against Simeone’s side, who finished last season only behind Barcelona and Real Madrid in xG (28), goals scored (29) and big chances created (2.58) on the road.
Although this is a big step up in competition from the previous opponents, I do like Vallecano to find the back of the net in front of the home crowd, which has been a tough place to go to for the top clubs in Spain.
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