Where Nvidia's Stock Price Will Go Next (Technical Analysis … – Seeking Alpha

ASUS ROG STRIX Nvidia GeForce RTX 4090 GPU 24GB Tweak III, with DLSS and Reflex, High End Graphics Card with box in a gaming retails store, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates- March 16, 2023

Adnan Ahmad Ali/iStock Editorial via Getty Images

Adnan Ahmad Ali/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
The market is like the weather, it changes often. The market’s fickle nature is partly why stocks often lead to losses for retail investors. By going “all-in’ or “all-out,” individual investors can often be overexposed
Our site is unique in that we provide active management. This has helped us outperform across four audit periods. Our stance is the weather will always change – from good times to bad times, and from bad times to good times. Therefore, we are not over-exposed in either direction.
An example of this is Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA), our largest position. As the allocation grew well beyond 10%, we
With the cash we raised throughout 2022, NVDA was the primary target of deploying some of this cash once our analysis signaled a bottom was in place. The below is a real-time trade notification we sent to our members on the October 13th.

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The above alert was 1 of 9 alerts we sent out from 2021 – 2022 to buy NVDA below $200. However, since February of 2023, we have been systematically taking gains at key levels based on technical and macro warnings. Even with logging sizable wins while raising cash, it in the top position in 2023.
In our pre-earnings buy-plan for NVDA, we stated that
It is our belief that NVDA is setting up for a sizable pullback, which we believe will open the door for better long-term entries.”
Though we do believe that lower levels will manifest in time, the recent earnings report moved forward expectations regarding AI, which is showing up in the price action. We have been discussing that Nvidia will be an AI leader for years with an allocation to match, yet predicting the exact day and month the market would finally price in this thesis is impossible to predict (and timing to this level is not necessary when holding a large longer-term position)
Regarding price, we work in probabilities, and when the market changes, so do we. The key to NVDA today is the large gap from their earnings report. This gap is either a breakaway gap, or an exhaustion gap. If it is a breakaway gap, which is represented by our red count below, then it is the halfway point in this push higher. On the other hand, if price breaks below $340, likely on some type of “event,” then the gap is an exhaustion gap, and will mark a larger top. This is represented by our blue count.

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The $405 – $395 region will likely continue to act as strong support for the red count. This is where we added back in anticipation for a ~38% push higher. Our stop for this move will be a break below the $340 critical support region, which is ~14% lower than our entry.
Unlike many, we do not believe AI is a bubble, nor do we think the valuations in some of these names is stretched, as many believe. What does concern us regarding possible “events” are: 1) geopolitical tensions forcing a ban of selling NVDA’s chips to China – which Beth spoke about in May with Bloomberg Asia; 2) the inevitable recession that will likely start to be priced into equities in Q4/Q1, but could get pushed forward due to an unforeseen event.
Because of these risks, we are buying with an exit plan for any new entries. It is our belief, based on the economic data, that a recession is a more likely than not for the U.S. economy. However, based on current projections on timing, we could see a continued push in AI leadership through year-end. This is what we are further positioning our portfolio for, with the realization that we could top out sooner than anticipated.
The Tech Insider Network has been beating the drum about AI for 5 years. Now that it is here, we are targeting choice mid-cap to mega-cap names in the coming pullback. Once this exuberance runs its course, and the market gives up on AI, we will be buying the dip for this once-in-a-lifetime tech trend that is just starting. Join us the week following the holiday, Thursday, 7/13, at 4:30 EST where we will go over the specific AI stocks we are targeting. We will provide the macro backdrop, along with entry prices.
We offer tech sector coverage that combines fundamentals and technicals. After recommending a stock, we provide entries and exits.
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This article was written by
Beth Kindig is the CEO and Lead Tech Analyst for the I/O Fund and Tech Insider Network, delivering weekly in-depth tech stock analysis and active portfolio management. Utilizing nearly two decades of tech industry experience in Silicon Valley, Tech Insider Network combines fundamental and technical analysis, to consistently beat top-performing Wall Street tech funds such as ARKK and QQQ.
Beth is a regular at top tech conferences including Android Developers Conference, GamesBeat, Advertising Week NYC, Tech Week Chicago, and BlackHat. In addition to her regular analysis at Seeking Alpha, she has appeared in Forbes, MarketWatch, Venture Beat, MediaPost, AdExchanger, and the International Association of Privacy Professionals. She is also a regular on the TV and podcast circuit including on Fox Business News, CNBC, TDAmeritrade, CoinDesk, NPR, Bloomberg TV Asia, Motley Fool podcast, This Week in Startups.
Learn more about Tech Insider Network here.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of NVDA either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.


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